Blind Player Comparison (Stats Only) #2
I think it's a good exercise to think about players without the hype or bias that comes with knowing their name or team. Therefore, I created a little blind resume, and will reveal the player names below and discuss my thoughts. Try not to spoil the exercise by looking at the player names before analyzing the different players!
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The players listed are Jarrett Culver (Player A) of Texas Tech and Nickeil Alexander-Walker (Player B) of Virginia Tech. Culver is being mocked in the top 5 usually while Alexander-Walker is usually being mocked in the mid first round (15-20 range). I'm very high on both of these guys as prospects, but this exercise showed how similar they are. Their advanced stats are very, very similar, and the only major differences are that Alexander-Walker (Player B) shows much more promise as a shooter, while Culver (Player A) seems to be better at attacking the rim and as a rebounder.
I think this shows a lot more about Alexander-Walker and that he should be getting consideration in the Top 10 rather than that Culver is overrated. Alexander-Walkers shows great defensive potential at the 2 guard position in the NBA, as well as being a fantastic shooter and great athlete who is explosive while also having good lateral quickness. I think people also tend to sleep on his potential as a creator, as he shows the ability to drive and kick and also create his own shot. Alexander-Walker is similar to Josh Okogie of last year's class (who is playing major minutes in the NBA as a rookie) in terms of age, 3 and D ability, and creation potential as a 2nd or third initiator. Alexander-Walker looks much better though than Okogie did in his second and final year of college, as he is scoring better, shooting better, distributing and attacking the rim better, and also playing similar to better defense. He also moves very well off ball, which will be important as he won't be a ball dominant player in the NBA. A Josh Okogie-plus type prospect to me should be in very high demand, a top 10 type of player, especially in a weak draft like this. The biggest knock on Alexander-Walker is probably his limited ceiling. Unlike Culver, very few people project him to have the chance to be an all-star level player in the NBA. I think he could get there, but he certainly doesn't have the high ceiling of guys like Culver, RJ Barrett or Romeo Langford as wing prospects.
To talk more about Culver, I also love him as a prospect for his creation potential and ball handling ability. Culver shows great passing ability in the Texas Tech offense, especially given that he is not surrounded by a ton of talent. He not only makes flashy passes, but also makes perfect timed passes off of the pick and roll, a very important skill in the NBA. Also, he seems taller than the 6-6 he is listed at, which along with his long arms makes him a potential point-forward type player in the NBA. He is pretty fantastic at getting to the rim and drawing contact as well, with an ultra quick first step and good use of fakes and shiftiness near the rim. I do think he needs to improve as a shooter though and also improve his AST/TO ratio, which is average at best. His shot form is not very good, and while he shoots a decent percentage from three in college, to step back and shoot well from 3 in the NBA he needs to work on his jumper. Also, he shows some weakness off ball defensively, allowing cutters to go past him and at times falling asleep on that end of the floor. While he's benefiting from playing in one of the best defensive systems in the country right now, he still has a long way to go defensively to realize his potential.
Where are these guys on my board?
Currently I'm still figuring out my full big board, but I will likely have Culver in the 3-6 range and Alexander-Walker in the 7-11 range.
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The players listed are Jarrett Culver (Player A) of Texas Tech and Nickeil Alexander-Walker (Player B) of Virginia Tech. Culver is being mocked in the top 5 usually while Alexander-Walker is usually being mocked in the mid first round (15-20 range). I'm very high on both of these guys as prospects, but this exercise showed how similar they are. Their advanced stats are very, very similar, and the only major differences are that Alexander-Walker (Player B) shows much more promise as a shooter, while Culver (Player A) seems to be better at attacking the rim and as a rebounder.
I think this shows a lot more about Alexander-Walker and that he should be getting consideration in the Top 10 rather than that Culver is overrated. Alexander-Walkers shows great defensive potential at the 2 guard position in the NBA, as well as being a fantastic shooter and great athlete who is explosive while also having good lateral quickness. I think people also tend to sleep on his potential as a creator, as he shows the ability to drive and kick and also create his own shot. Alexander-Walker is similar to Josh Okogie of last year's class (who is playing major minutes in the NBA as a rookie) in terms of age, 3 and D ability, and creation potential as a 2nd or third initiator. Alexander-Walker looks much better though than Okogie did in his second and final year of college, as he is scoring better, shooting better, distributing and attacking the rim better, and also playing similar to better defense. He also moves very well off ball, which will be important as he won't be a ball dominant player in the NBA. A Josh Okogie-plus type prospect to me should be in very high demand, a top 10 type of player, especially in a weak draft like this. The biggest knock on Alexander-Walker is probably his limited ceiling. Unlike Culver, very few people project him to have the chance to be an all-star level player in the NBA. I think he could get there, but he certainly doesn't have the high ceiling of guys like Culver, RJ Barrett or Romeo Langford as wing prospects.
To talk more about Culver, I also love him as a prospect for his creation potential and ball handling ability. Culver shows great passing ability in the Texas Tech offense, especially given that he is not surrounded by a ton of talent. He not only makes flashy passes, but also makes perfect timed passes off of the pick and roll, a very important skill in the NBA. Also, he seems taller than the 6-6 he is listed at, which along with his long arms makes him a potential point-forward type player in the NBA. He is pretty fantastic at getting to the rim and drawing contact as well, with an ultra quick first step and good use of fakes and shiftiness near the rim. I do think he needs to improve as a shooter though and also improve his AST/TO ratio, which is average at best. His shot form is not very good, and while he shoots a decent percentage from three in college, to step back and shoot well from 3 in the NBA he needs to work on his jumper. Also, he shows some weakness off ball defensively, allowing cutters to go past him and at times falling asleep on that end of the floor. While he's benefiting from playing in one of the best defensive systems in the country right now, he still has a long way to go defensively to realize his potential.
Where are these guys on my board?
Currently I'm still figuring out my full big board, but I will likely have Culver in the 3-6 range and Alexander-Walker in the 7-11 range.
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