Big Board #1 2019

The Draft Report First 2019 Big Board (Tiers ARE in order)

Tier 1

1. PF Zion Williamson, Duke

This is a pretty easy choice, and I think anyone who says it’s not is looking at Zion a little bit too closely. Yes, he loves to go to his left. And yes, he reaches too much on defense. But any time you see athleticism and talent like this put up numbers you have to take him number one. He had arguably the most dominant college season in the modern era, and did it at the age of 18. I think it’s more likely that Zion is a star than he is an average starter.

Tier 2

2. PG Ja Morant, Murray St
3. SF RJ Barrett, Duke
4. SF Jarrett Culver, Texas Tech
5. C Bol Bol, Oregon
6. PG Coby White, North Carolina

This tier is where it starts to get interesting, and where I had to make a few controversial choices. I have Morant at 2 and pretty far ahead of Barrett because of Morant’s combination of athleticism, ball handling, projectable shooting and passing. He does almost everything better than Barrett in my opinion, except for Barrett being taller and longer. I have Barrett at 3, but that shows how weak this draft is in my opinion as I’m not really that high on him. Barrett will probably always be a high volume guy who needs the ball, and I don’t think he’ll ever be good enough at that role to lead a contending NBA team. He just doesn’t have elite shooting, separation or foul drawing ability, which makes it tough for him to be an elite scorer. This is problematic because he doesn’t defend very well and also does little off ball. His career peak could ending up being as a 23/6/6 type guy (points/rebounds/assists), but I doubt his team will be very good if he’s averaging those numbers. The main controversial choices here are having Bol and White in tier 2. I already wrote an article about Bol on this site, so you can read more there, but pretty much I am just intrigued by his college and high school shooting numbers at his size, as well as his massive wingspan with good lateral agility and instincts on both ends. While motor is definitely an issue for Bol, I honestly would probably have him at #3 ahead of Barrett if it wasn’t for injury concerns (foot injuries are problematic for someone so tall). Obviously, the public will never get a full injury report, but if I ever was able to get an injury analysis I could see putting him anywhere between 3 and 12 depending on the result. Coby White is very interesting to me at 6, but I think his size and scoring ability in a weak draft class like this can’t go unnoticed, especially given that he made great use of these things at UNC, as probably the 3rd best freshman player in the country. He has a very projectable shooting stroke, and I think he also can be a solid defender in the NBA.

Tier 3

7. PF DeAndre Hunter, Virginia
8. PF Brandon Clarke, Gonzaga
9. SG Matisse Thybulle, Washington
10. SF Cam Johnson, North Carolina
11. PF Grant Williams, Tennessee
12. PG Darius Garland, Vanderbilt

This tier is mostly full of older prospects (except for Darius Garland), showing how little depth this freshman class has. Most of these guys are role player types in the NBA, but have elite role player potential in the mold of someone like Pascal Siakam or Robert Covington for example. Hunter at 7 is fairly consensus, I don’t think he’ll ever be even an all-star, but has good potential and seems like a safe bet to be a good starter or 4th best player on a contender. Clarke was probably the 2nd best player in the country last year after Zion, so even though he’s fairly old, I think he’ll be a very positive player for whoever drafts him. Thybulle at 9 is certainly very high compared to most boards, but I have him there for a couple of reasons. First, he may be the greatest college defender in the last several (or more) drafts in terms of the tape and his steal and block rates, or on/off defensive numbers. If he can defend at an Andre Roberson or Tony Allen level (which is very possible), he has the potential to be an incredibly valuable NBA player, as his projectable shooting stroke could let him stand in the corner the way that PJ Tucker does for the Rockets and force teams to guard him there. Unlike Roberson and Allen, who are/were at times unplayable due to their poor shooting ability, Thybulle would be able to command some attention on offense. My biggest worry with Thybulle is moving from the 2-3 zone to man to man in the NBA, but I don’t think it’ll be too much of an issue. Cam Johnson is similar to Thybulle in that he has an elite skill that is very important in today’s NBA, as well as secondary skills that give him no glaring weaknesses. He is a fantastic shooter, and can also attack closeouts and make the correct decision or crash the offensive glass. He is a good defender as well, and will be very switchable on defense as a 6-9 guard. Williams at 11 would have been controversial earlier in the year, but is becoming more common, as he projects as a great small ball 4 who can stretch the floor, score inside or in the mid-range, defend really well using his developed body, and also has great instincts on both ends of the floor. Garland at 12 is a little bit low to some people, as he is frequently getting a Damian Lillard comp. I could see a really wide range of outcomes for Garland, as he definitely looks pretty polished and likely will be a good or very good shooter. He can create his own shot pretty well, but we don’t have much evidence of him doing that against high level competition, outside of one game against USC (a fairly poor defensive team) where he didn’t even play very well. He is mostly here for his potential, as he may have the 3rd or 4th highest potential in this draft. His floor however, is very low. He could end up as a Roddy Beaubois type player in the NBA, as he may not be able to defend much at all or pass much at all, leaving him as an undersized scoring two guard.

Tier 4

13. SG Tyler Herro, Kentucky
14. SF Cam Reddish, Duke
15. C Goga Bitadze, Georgia
16. SG Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Virginia Tech
17. SG Keldon Johnson, Kentucky
18. SG Romeo Langford, Indiana
19. C Jaxson Hayes, Texas
20. SF Chuma Okeke, Auburn
21. PF Killian Tillie, Gonzaga
22. PF Sekou Doumboya, France
23. C Jontay Porter, Missouri
24. PF PJ Washington, Kentucky
25. SF Nassir Little, North Carolina

As the tiers get bigger, I’m gonna have to choose which players to talk about and which players to not talk about. Therefore, I’m going to have to start skipping more players who are less interesting or less controversial. I love Herro here at 13. He’s probably the most projectable shooter in this draft outside of maybe Fletcher Magee, mostly due to a 42.1 3P% in conference play and a 93.5 FT% overall. Free throw percentage is a good predictor of NBA shooting ability, and Herro’s is the best of any top prospect in this draft, and it’s really not even close. Players like Luke Kennard or Grayson Allen have been drafted highly in recent drafts largely due to their shooting, and Herro is probably better than both of these guys at shooting, maybe significantly better. When you have such a great shooter who also defends fairly well, has decent size and can handle and distribute a little bit, I think that is a definite lottery pick. Cam Reddish is a bit of an enigma to me. In some ways, he was overrated this year in that he was really just terrible on the offensive end. People go to his high school tape to show his playmaking ability and say that he didn’t have the opportunity to show it in college, but when he was given the ball he did very little with it, playing terribly in games without Zion and turning it over significantly more than he assisted. In other ways though, I think he was a little bit underrated. He looked like a very projectable shooter, with solid form, a great free throw percentage for a freshman, and a solid three point percentage given that he took so many tough contested threes. He also was an excellent defender when locked in (even if he was too rarely locked in). Based on his physical profile, shooting ability and defense, I think he can end up being a great NBA 3 and D who also can attack closeouts and distribute a little bit. I don’t know as much about Bitadze or the other international prospects as I do the college players, but his stats and limited tape look very good, a potential rim protector who also could be a threat and high IQ player on the offensive end. Langford’s freshman year was similar to Reddish’s in that he was disappointing in a lot of ways. He’s definitely very raw, but his on-ball defense was fantastic and clearly has the athleticism and wingspan for an NBA shooting guard. His shot did not look good, but he was dealing with a torn thumb ligament and was one of the best finishing guards at the rim in the entire country as a freshman. Romeo is a high upside guy who also seems like a sure bet to at least be playable in the NBA. Okeke may be my favorite prospect in the draft, as he seems to do pretty much everything well and is one of the best defenders in this draft. He’s pretty young and very athletic, so while he likely will be a high level role player, I do think he has the potential to be more than that and become a scorer for a good NBA team. The only real weakness he has is the ACL injury that ended his season in the NCAA tournament, but with the way ACL injuries are usually not that problematic nowadays, I don’t think it will impact his career all that much except for missing his rookie year. Jontay Porter is another injury risk, and is a much bigger one, as he had a second torn ACL recently. Although this injury is definitely a huge setback, he was one of the most impactful players in the SEC at the age of 17, and if he would have played this year I think he would have been a first team all-SEC player at the age of someone like Coby White. He probably would have been a top 5 prospect for me in this draft if it wasn’t for injuries, so he still definitely belongs in the top 25. He was never that athletic, and rather used his shooting, high basketball IQ, passing and defense to be a very positive player. Little improved throughout the season for UNC, and shot well from the free throw line, but I don’t have much confidence in his defensive IQ or his ability to create offensively. And honestly his athleticism is probably overrated as well. He is certainly a great athlete, but nowhere near Zion and likely won’t stand out in the NBA in terms of pure athleticism.

Tier 5

26. PG Ty Jerome, Virginia
27. SF Louis King, Oregon
28. C Charles Bassey, Western Kentucky
29. C Bruno Fernando, Maryland
30. C Daniel Gafford, Arkansas
31. SG Kevin Porter, Jr., USC
32. PF Rui Hachimura, Gonzaga
33. SG Jordan Poole, Michigan
34. SF Dylan Windler, Belmont
35. C Neemias Queta, Utah St
36. SF Jordan Nwora, Louisville
37. SF Ignas Brazdeikis, Michigan

Ty Jerome showed out in the NCAA tournament, and should be a very valuable two way point guard in the NBA, whether he is starting or coming off the bench. He limits turnovers, shoots and defends well, and does the little things that a team needs. Bassey, Fernando and Gafford are all rim protectors with different strengths in this tier. Bassey is more than 2 years younger than both Fernando and Gafford, so while he was definitely the worst college player of the three, he probably has the highest potential and is the only one who can be more than just a rim protector. He shot really well from the free throw line, and was 9 of 20 from three, so it is very possible that he will be able to stretch the floor as well, something that Fernando and Gafford will be unlikely to do. He played against pretty bad competition though, and turned the ball over at an insanely high rate while also not positioning himself that well on defense though, so he definitely has a lot to work on. Fernando is a much better free throw shooter than Gafford, but doesn’t defend quite as well. Both players are super athletic with developed bodies and should be able to defend opposing centers from day 1. Porter Jr. is probably the most overrated player in the draft. There is no way around the fact that he was terrible for USC this year. Constantly, I hear draft analysts saying that he should have been given more opportunities, but he wasn’t efficient when he did get opportunities, and this includes several lucky bank shot three pointers. He shot 52% from the free throw line, did not defend well or show any consistent passing ability. While his step back and crossover are developed and look nice, the big question is has there ever been a player so bad in college who has become successful in the NBA? A couple guys that come to mind are Andre Drummond and Zach LaVine. Drummond and LaVine are two of the most athletic guys in the NBA though, and both clearly had better stats than Porter Jr. in college and played on better teams. Porter Jr. doesn’t possess the same elite athleticism that either player does. Honestly, if a player’s ceiling is a Drummond or LaVine type impact, is that even worth it? Personally, I’d much rather have an elite role player like Robert Covington or Pascal Siakam than Drummond or LaVine because both of those guys can contribute to winning teams. Hachimura is another very interesting case. Going into the season, I thought Rui was very underrated and could potentially play himself into the lottery. Weirdly enough, he pretty much exceeded all expectations, becoming a national POY contender, but still ended up as a late first or early second round prospect. Offensively, Rui should do alright in the NBA, but really just doesn’t have a modern NBA skillset. Instead of improving his outside shot or ball handling, he doubled down on interior scoring and therefore will be fairly one-dimensional and not that efficient in the NBA. He’ll be able to space the floor a little bit, but probably will never developed a refined outside game, which is tough for a 6-8 tweener who doesn’t defend well at all. Windler, Nwora, and Brazdeikis all project as potential late first round picks for contenders, as they all shoot well (in Windler’s case very well) and play solid defense while being good rebounders and high IQ players.

Tier 6

38. PG Carsen Edwards, Purdue
39. PG Shamorie Ponds, St. John’s
40. PF Sagabe Konate, West Virginia
41. SF KZ Okpala, Stanford
42. PG Devon Dotson, Kansas
43. SF Deividas Sirvydis, Lithuania
44. SG Joe Wieskamp, Iowa
45. SG Isaiah Joe, Arkansas
46. SF Talen Horton-Tucker, Iowa St
47. SG Luguentz Dort, Arizona St
48. SG Zach Norvell, Gonzaga
49. PF Luka Samanic, Croatia

Edwards will likely get overdrafted because of his tournament performance. While he’s a great player, he shot below 40% from the field on the year and had some really tough stretches shooting the ball. He also does little to distribute the ball, so is basically a 6-1 shooting guard. Despite all of these issues, he has great scoring potential in the NBA and defends pretty well for his size. I absolutely love Konate as a prospect, and he’s another guy who is being underrated due to an injury.  He is one of the all-time great shot blocking prospects, especially for his size, with timing and ability to block and contest shots without fouling that is unprecedented. He also shows some impressive shooting potential, shooting 79% from the line two years ago and 81% in 8 games last year, while shooting 9 of 23 from three in those 8 games. If Konate can develop a three point jumper, he can become a two-way weapon in the NBA. I think Okpala is another highly overrated prospect. I’m not sold at all on his shooting, defense or ball handling, and is only this high because of his athletic ability and physical profile. He moves really well for his size, has a great wingspan and potential defensively, but I’m not sure his basketball IQ or instincts are good enough. Joe Wieskamp and Isaiah Joe are two of the top shooting prospects in this draft, maybe the top two freshman shooters, and while they’re raw, man can they shoot. Joe may be the better pure shooter, but Wieskamp is a better offensive player overall, shooting really well on two pointers as well as threes. Both would be the type of prospects a team could develop into 3 and D players who space the floor and can make good decisions. I want to love Horton-Tucker, but he seems pretty polarizing to me. He’s incredibly young for this draft class, realistically he should be entering college next year, and he does some things really well. He defends really well and is very quick for his size as well as disruptive on that side of the ball. He also has good footwork offensively. However, his shot has a long way to go, and I think he really hurt Iowa State this year by taking shots away from better players. He also is only 6-4, and doesn’t play at all like a shooting guard, more like a 3 or a 4, so that’s another problem. All in all, I could see a wide range of NBA outcomes for him, and while he’d be a good guy to take a chance on in the mid second, it’s hard to see him going earlier than that. Dort seems like a prime example of a player who despite good athleticism, doesn’t have enough skills in his game to be an above average player in the NBA. He is a solid defender, but nowhere near the Marcus Smart level that some analysts tout him as. When you watch him he seems like a high potential guy, but I start to wonder if he hasn’t developed the skill set to finish near the rim, shoot and handle the ball by now, will he ever develop those things? Because those things are probably what it would take for him to live up to the mid first round grade that some analysts are giving him.

Tier 7

50. SG Kyle Guy, Virginia
51. PF Nicolas Claxton, Georgia
52. SG Terance Mann, Florida St
53. PG Myles Powell, Seton Hall
54. PF Kenny Wooten, Oregon
55. SG Jaylen Nowell, Washington
56. PF Mfiondu Kabengele, Florida St
57. SG Desmond Bane, TCU
58. SF Kouat Noi, TCU
59. PF Ethan Happ, Wisconsin
60. PF Cameron Jackson, Wofford
61. PF Tariq Owens, Texas Tech
62. PF Kaleb Wesson, Ohio St
63. PF Matt Rafferty, Furman
64. PF Dedric Lawson, Kansas

Terrance Mann improved drastically at Florida St, but I always feel like he had a great feel for the game, and it was just a matter of time before his skills developed. His stats don’t look that good with his team’s style of play, but he does everything you want out of a 3 and D prospect. Kabengele suffered from the same problem at FSU, and never got a chance to fully prove himself. I just don’t see how a guy with his athleticism and motor can’t at least be a backup big in the NBA. His shot is very solid for a big man and he does all the right things defensively in terms of rotations. If Ethan Happ could shoot, I think he would have been a top 5 or 10 pick a couple of years ago. However, his shot is just so bad, and doesn’t seem to be fixable at all. So the big question with him is if you can live with it. He’s a fantastic defender, and does everything right with or without the ball on offense. I personally would take a chance on him late in the draft, but could definitely see him not being able to crack an NBA rotation because of how bad his shot is, but also could see him becoming a very valuable role player who can defend, handle the ball a little bit, and facilitate. Cameron Jackson, not to be confused with Cameron Johnson, may be the best passing big man in this draft. Although he does struggle with fouls, he kind of reminds me of a Draymond Green lite (even though I think Draymond as a player comparison is thrown around WAY too much). His shot seems fairly workable, and if he can develop it he would become a perfect bench big. Tariq Owens put his shot blocking ability on display in the NCAA tournament, and also showed some skill on the other side of the ball. His ability to anchor that Texas Tech defense was very impressive, and his lateral agility makes him a very switchable defender with a high motor. Any time a guy defends this well and also has shooting potential, I think he is draftable. Rafferty isn’t talked about much as an NBA prospect, but was one of the top players in college the past two years. His passing and defense at 6-8 and 215 lbs is fantastic, as he averaged 4.3 assists and 2.5 steals while only turning it over 2.1 times per game, albeit against weak competition. He won’t have great athleticism by NBA standards, or even decent athleticism, but I can see a path to playing time for a guy who does all the little things and doesn’t really have any holes in his game.

Tier 8

65. SG DaQuan Jeffries, Tulsa
66. PF Juwan Morgan, Indiana
67. PF Aric Holman, Mississippi St
68. PG Tremont Waters, LSU
69. SG Jarron Cumberland, Cincinnati
70. PF Dean Wade, Kansas St
71. SG CJ Massinburg, Buffalo
72. SF Robert Franks, Washington St
73. PF Isaiah Roby, Nebraska
74. PG Jeremiah Martin, Memphis
75. PF Bennie Boatwright, USC
76. SF Admiral Schofield, Tennessee
77. PG Ky Bowman, Boston College
78. PG Corey Davis Jr., Houston
79. PG Jared Harper, Auburn

DaQuan Jeffries is another guy who’s not a household name, but does a lot of things well on both sides of the ball. Unlike some of these other guys, there is no question that Jeffries has NBA athleticism as he can throw it down the best of them. While it’s tough to justify drafting a 21 year old who averaged 13 points per game at Tulsa, Jeffries fits the theme of shooting, defense and attacking closeouts that teams look for in drafting role player wings. Juwan Morgan has a skillset that fits the college game much better than the NBA game, but I think he will shoot better in a smaller role in the NBA and he’ll also be a switchable NBA defender who can crash the boards and get putbacks on offense. Jeremiah Martin is an intriguing backup point guard prospect even though he played on a bad Memphis team. He has decent NBA point guard size at 6-3, which is rare for late draft point guards, and does similar things to Carsen Edwards and Shamorie Ponds offensively, both higher rated prospects. I honestly haven’t watched enough of him, but I could see moving him up on my board into the top 60 after seeing more of his tape. Admiral Schofield may seem low compared to his teammate Grant Williams, but Schofield doesn’t really do much other than score, and he likely won’t score all that well at the NBA level. I used to think of him as a stat-sheet stuffer type small forward, but he doesn’t really rack up many steals, blocks or assists at all. I also don’t see him really getting that much better, as his body is already pretty developed and his shot hasn’t improved that much over the last few years.

Tier 9

80. SG Joshua Obiesie, France
81. SG CJ Elleby, Washington St
82. PG Jaylen Hands, UCLA
83. SG Josh Reaves, Penn St
84. C Naz Reid, LSU
85. PF Kerry Blackshear, Jr., Virginia Tech
86. SG Aubrey Dawkins, UCF
87. PF EJ Montgomery, Kentucky
88. SG Fletcher Magee, Wofford
89. SG Quinndary Weatherspoon, Mississippi St
90. SF Kris Wilkes, UCLA
91. SF Brian Bowen, USA
92. SF Darius Bazley, USA
93. SG Cody Martin, Nevada
94. PG Chris Clemons, Campbell
95. SG Skylar Mays, LSU
96. PF Jalen McDaniels, San Diego St
97. SF Jaylen Hoard, Wake Forest
98. PF Eric Paschall, Villanova
99. PF Elijah Thomas, Clemson
100. SG LaGerald Vick, Kansas
101. SF Lamar Stevens, Penn St
102. PG Justin Robinson, Virginia Tech
103. SG Lindell Wigginton, Iowa St
104. SG Caleb Martin, Nevada
105. SG Miye Oni, Yale
106. SG John Konchar, Fort Wayne
107. PG Jalen Lecque, USA
108. SG Quentin Grimes, Kansas
109. PF Simisola Shittu, Vanderbilt

This last tier is a huge one. Josh Reaves would be an interesting UDFA signing for a lot of teams  because of his lockdown defender potential in the NBA and his ability to shoot and be a solid enough offensive player. I’m not a fan of Naz Reid at all, as he won’t be able to protect the rim in the NBA nor can he switch onto smaller guards or forwards. And he’s not a good enough offensive player to make up for those issues. EJ Montgomery should definitely go back to school, but a quick look at his advanced stats shows that he was not near as bad as his basic stats look. I’m excited to see what he can do in a bigger role at Kentucky next year if he comes back. Magee is one of the best college shooters ever and could find a role in the NBA if he can become a 15th percentile defender or something like that. Bowen and Bazley are both huge question marks, although some team may reach for them based on a good workout. Honestly, I think Bazley should have gone to college, it probably would have been better for his draft stock. Justin Robinson is a little bit like Fred Van Vleet and could make the NBA as a solid backup point guard. Lecque, Grimes and Shittu should all go back to college, or in Lecque’s case, go to college for the first time. Grimes and Shittu were incredibly disappointing as freshmen, as both were negative players for their teams. The only reason I put them on here is because of their potential to grow into their natural athleticism and ability, but honestly there’s probably other players who I didn’t mention who are much better and also have higher potential.

Next year guys: Markus Howard, Josh LeBlanc, Dejon Jarreau, Tyrese Haliburton, Cassius Winston, Osun Osunniyi, Aaron Nesmith, Tristan Clark, Isaiah Livers, Davide Moretti, Matt Haarms, Dhamir Cosby-Roundtree, Saddiq Bey, Marcus Garrett, George Conditt IV

These are a few guys who I think are underrated returning prospects for next year and who I’ll keep an eye on throughout the season. As I said in a previous article, I’m very high on Howard, and would have put him in my top 15 for this year’s draft if he would have came out. He has elite NBA scoring potential, and you can’t pass up on that for too long regardless of his size. LeBlanc was awesome in limited minutes as a freshman for Georgetown and should take a big step forward next year and potentially become a first round pick along with Haliburton who was fantastic for Iowa St and shows great potential as a point guard who can play off ball next to a big scorer and make the right decisions. Jarreau has great footwork and looks super athletic on the court. He also backs this up with great defense and solid offensive numbers. I’m excited to see him next year with a larger role for Houston, as I think he can play himself into the 2020 draft. All of these other guys should see increased roles next year as well and I think their talent will show.