2020 Guards

My rankings (tiers 5-7 in a very rough order):
Tier 1 (best 2 players in the draft)
1. Killian Hayes
2. LaMelo Ball

Tier 2 (top 7 ish picks?)
3. Tyrese Haliburton
4. Anthony Edwards
5. Kira Lewis

Tier 3 (late lottery/mid 1st)
6. Tyrese Maxey
7. Cole Anthony
8. Tyrell Terry
9. Josh Green
10. Theo Maledon

Tier 4 (late 1st)
11. Devon Dotson
12. RJ Hampton
13. Markus Howard
14. Desmond Bane
15. Nico Mannion

Tier 5 (early-mid 2nd)
Malachi Flynn
Jahmi'us Ramsey
Tre Jones
Jared Butler
Cassius Winston
Isaiah Joe
Grant Riller
Nate Hinton

Tier 6 (late 2nd/undrafted)
Ty-Shon Alexander
Jalen Harris
Immanuel Quickley
Joel Ayayi
Skylar Mays
Saben Lee

Tier 7 (other top undrafted guys)
Jonah Radebaugh
John Petty
Myles Powell
Robert Woodard
Trent Forrest
Aaron Henry
Ayo Dosonmu
Ashton Hagans
Jake Toolson
Sam Merrill
Payton Pritchard
Dejon Jarreau
Cassius Stanley
Jalen Crutcher
Nate Darling

Most other guys I would probably have in tier 8, but I might have missed a couple players or haven't watched them yet.

Here are some (fairly rambling) thoughts on some of the 2020 NBA draft guard prospects:

Killian Hayes:
As of now, Hayes is my #1 prospect in the draft, and I have him that high for a couple of main reasons.

His passing is superb.  This is a really weak draft overall, but the passing ability of Hayes, Haliburton and Ball is unrivaled compared to recent drafts.  Hayes occasionally makes flashy passes, but I love his passing ability mainly because he is awesome at the easy and medium passes.  He always seems to be delivering the ball to the right spot at the right time and his touch on lob passes is probably as good as any 18 year old ever.  The same is true of his effort and instincts defensively, as he rotates well and generally makes good closeouts, even if he is sometimes a little too flat footed.  He also currently has a really smooth scoring package.

Footwork like that on a step back with good form on the shot and a repeatable motion is rare for any draft prospect, much less an 18 year old playing against grown men.  While Hayes doesn't have the explosion of a Derrick Rose or Russell Westbrook, his shake, handle and footwork still give him a chance to be a great NBA scorer someday.  The biggest thing that impresses me about his game is how he is always in control and makes things look easy.  He faced a lot of ball pressure and smart team defense during the Euro Cup and still was clearly the best player on his team, a team that included former NBA draft picks Grant Jerrett and Tyler Harvey, as well as other former NCAA standouts.  Hayes pretty clearly has a high floor, as he projects as a solid starter at PG even without that much improvement from his recent season.

Thinking about Hayes's potential is a little more complicated.  He doesn't have elite physical tools the way that many star NBA point guards do, but his skill level is very high and is only going to improve.  He also has fantastic footwork and body control, along with great deceleration, something that is really important for NBA scoring ability (part of what James Harden and Luka Doncic are so good at).  Outside of a LaMelo Ball with an improved shot and better shot selection, Hayes probably has the highest realistic ceiling in the draft.

Tyrese Haliburton:
I could talk for a while about Haliburton, but I will try to keep it as short as possible here, mostly because I don't want to make this article too long.  Mainly though, I think Tyrese can be looked at as draft philosophy example, and differences in rankings for him likely often are related to draft philosophy.  Tyrese has some really huge strengths: incredible passing ability/vision, fantastic defensive instincts, really long arms, good ball handling for size, great shooting indicators at the college level.  He also has some really serious limitations: shooting form is iffy, his handle is not that great compared to other lead guards, he needs to get a lot stronger, but mainly, he shies away from contact and taking the ball to the rim, instead settling for jumpers or passing out of the pick and roll when he should instead be shooting.  This appears to give him low probability of ever becoming a star, as his mentality doesn't line up with the general "star" model of NBA players in the same way that say, Cole Anthony's or Tyrese Maxey's does.  Even if he does improve that mentality and attacks the rim with reckless abandon in the NBA, it doesn't appear that he has the driving or finishing ability to do so efficiently.

Only 5 NCAA basketball underclassmen since 2008 have averaged 5 RPG and 5 APG on 40% 3 point shooting (minimum 5 attempts).  4 of those are major conference players, 3 of which are Lonzo Ball, Markelle Fultz and D'Angelo Russell, all top 3 picks in their respective drafts.  The fourth is Haliburton.  Interestingly, if you compare Haliburton to those 4 statistically, he comes out looking pretty good.  Among the four, he ranks 1st steals per game, FT%, 3P%, 2nd in rebounds per game and assists per game while having the least fouls per game and 2nd least turnovers per game.  While these stats probably don't mean that much without context and watching these players (it's also worth mentioning that Tyrese was a sophomore while the other 3 were all freshmen), I think they show a pretty rare combination of basketball IQ, length and shooting.  While on the surface it might appear that Haliburton lacks "star" potential, I think it's possible that his ceiling looks more like Robert Covington or Draymond Green as a player archetype.  His skills aren't all that similar to these guys but I think he has the same ability to be hyper efficient and valuable at what he does, albeit in a smaller role than "star" players.  Tyrese has the ability to guard multiple positions, play fantastic defense, pass the ball at a really high level and spread the floor, all things that are extremely valuable for playoff teams such as the Milwaukee Bucks or Houston Rockets, which both have systems that fit his skillset.  His freshman year was a perfect example of this, where he was hyper-efficient as a role player and didn't need the ball in his hands to be successful.

To put it more plainly, I like to think about NBA prospects with 20th, 50th and 80th percentile outcomes, or basically their floor, median and realistic ceiling outcomes, respectively.  What I love about a prospect like Haliburton is that his 20th and 50th percentile outcomes are still pretty valuable, something you can't say about many other 2020 prospects.  Where I disagree with many analysts is that his 80th percentile outcome isn't that high.  Haliburton at his ceiling could be a "peak Lonzo Ball with a better shot", or "Draymond Green value as a secondary guard" type player.  And that's incredibly valuable.  I guess what I'm getting at is that Tyrese Maxey and Cole Anthony are more likely to become "franchise" players in the stereotypical sense of the word (someone like Bradley Beal), but Haliburton is more likely to become a top 20 NBA player in terms of value added.

Anthony Edwards:
I'm not going to make this one long, still need to watch more and am a little unsure of my opinion about Edwards.  So far though, I'm not a huge fan.  He sort of reminds me of Andrew Wiggins as an NBA prospect, as he has a lot of the traits associated with star players (good shooting, incredible athleticism/frame, defensive potential) but hasn't really shown signs of reaching that potential yet.  My biggest gripe is how both Wiggins and Edwards seem so passionate about settling for long jumpers when they could be using their athleticism/frame to be taking the ball to the rim.  I think the difference between guys like Edwards, Wiggins or Zach LaVine and star NBA players mostly comes down to mentality/instincts/basketball IQ.  If Edwards doesn't have those traits, I don't think he'll ever be a star no matter how much work he puts in.  Tom Crean did a good job showcasing NBA prospects even on some bad Indiana Hoosiers teams, so it worries me a little bit that Edwards didn't look better under Crean and on a Georgia team that really shouldn't have been as bad as it was.

Kira Lewis:
Along with Markus Howard, Kira is probably my favorite 2020 draft prospect.  Despite being one of the youngest players in the draft, Kira Lewis was actually a sophomore this past season (he is actually almost a full year younger than freshman Cole Anthony).  Kira has a pretty incredible resume for his age, with two fantastic college seasons where he showed off incredible quickness and burst along with solid shooting and some glimpses of elite passing.  His speed and acceleration is reminiscent of guys like De'Aaron Fox and John Wall in college, as he creates separation off the bounce really easy with a lightning quick first step and a good handle.  One of the reasons I love Kira is because of how much he will likely improve physically as he ages.  An NBA strength training plan will give him some much needed bulk on a very skinny frame (only 6-3, 165 lbs currently) that should allow him to play much more physically on both ends of the floor, whether that means getting to the free throw line or being tougher defensively.  He also is currently a really bouncy athlete and is a little out of control at times, which I think will be helped significantly by maturing physically and growing into his body.  Not a lot of people talk about his potential as a shooter, but Kira shot 80.2% from the FT line and shot 36.7% from three, with only 54.5% of those being assisted, a lower rate than Cole Anthony.  He is already comfortable shooting off the dribble, and this will improve as he gets better at using his quickness to create space for his shot.

Kira Lewis is one of the few guys in this draft with real all star potential, as he has the chance to combine an impressive scoring with facilitating and ability on defense.  I think he's definitely worthy of a top 10 pick, and even merits consideration in the top 7 range.  If he would've played one more year of high school instead of coming into the NCAA as a 17 year old, he likely would've gotten a lot more hype.  I think age is usually much more important to NBA potential than years of college played, which is why Kira has big time potential.

Cole Anthony:
Cole Anthony was one of the top 2020 prospects coming out of high school, as he was touted as a serious contender for the number one overall pick.  He had great numbers in the Nike EYBL and starred for Oak Hill Academy in high school.  I was high on him coming into the season, but he hasn't done much to show his high school ability.

Physically, Cole Anthony has solid size for the point guard position, as he is listed at 6'3 and 190 lbs.  His wingspan is listed at 6'4.5, although wingspan measurements for college players are often unclear.

One major problem I have with Anthony is his production at his age.  He had just a 50.1 TS% in 22 games with only 4.0 assists per game compared to 3.5 turnovers.  Those are both pretty terrible numbers, especially for someone who is a year or more older than many of the other recruits in his class.  In fact, Anthony is just slightly younger (2.5 months) than sophomore Tyrese Haliburton, who averaged 6.5 assists compared to 2.8 turnovers, as well as 2.5 steals with a 63.1 TS%.  At the same age, Haliburton is more advanced than Anthony in a number of different ways.  He has better shooting indicators, is a much better passer and also has more length and potential defensively.

Another comparison to make to Anthony of a similar age is Markus Howard.  Despite Howard being a senior, he is only about a year older than Anthony and has much better numbers (ridiculously better shooting numbers).  Howard's ability to create his own shot and draw fouls using hesitations and step backs far exceeds Anthony's, which is troubling for Anthony's chances to become an elite scorer.

Anthony is touted by many as a three level scorer, but he didn't prove to be consistent as a scorer in any of these areas while at UNC.  He shot only 34.8% on threes and a fairly average (for a point guard) 75% from the free throw line.  Some may argue that he shot a lot of contested/off-the-dribble threes which brought down his percentage, but 57.1% of his threes were assisted, a higher number than a bunch of other 2020 guards (including Kira Lewis and Anthony Edwards).  Cole Anthony was also really disappointing as a finisher.  He shot only 53.6% at the rim (according to barttorvik.com), lower than anyone else on his team (min. 30 attempts).  His lack of creativity as a finisher is shown by this tweet where he repeatedly takes it to the rim with some atrocious looking finishes that show a lack of court vision or shot selection.  I don't see much potential for Anthony to become highly efficient as an off the dribble shooter or as a finisher at the rim.

And to be honest, I'm not sure what Anthony's NBA role is if he doesn't become an elite or at least very good scorer.  There are few point guards in the NBA who play major minutes who don't have either elite scoring or defense ability and also turn the ball over so often (not to say that Anthony isn't solid on defense but at this point he doesn't project as anywhere near elite).  Anthony's absolute ceiling is a franchise point guard similar in value to someone like Damian Lillard or Kemba Walker.  However, I don't like his chances of getting anywhere near that ceiling unless he can either significantly improve his scoring ability (very unlikely), or alter his play style while significantly improving his instincts on both sides of the ball (also very unlikely).  In a class with a few guards that have transcendent passing ability (Haliburton, LaMelo Ball, Hayes), it's tough to justify drafting a scoring PG with only average efficiency and little potential as an NBA distributor.  While he makes nice passes off of the pick and roll at times, Anthony puts his head down on drives even when he has multiple rim protectors in the way, and this problem will be exacerbated in the NBA when he has to face better rim protection every game.

Anthony is really inconsistent defensively.  His athletic profile gives him a chance to be a solid defender in the NBA, and his instincts are also a positive, as he rotates well and has a chance to be a productive team defender.  Despite this, he's not much of an event creator (1.3 steals and 0.3 blocks in 34.9 minutes per game) and his effort is often very inconsistent.  Sometimes it seems like he'll start to contest a shot or clog up a hole in the defense but he'll back off from really applying any pressure.  His transition defense needs a lot of work as well.

This play is an example of something I saw a lot on his film.  It almost seems like he wants to look like he is involved in playing defense on this play, but instead completely fails to stop the ball and confuses the rest of his team in the process.  So while he occasionally steps up to stop the ball here, he often will just let someone score or let an easy pass go through.

Despite all of those negatives, I still think Anthony is likely worth a late lottery or mid first round pick (somewhere in the 12-18 range).  I'm definitely lower than the consensus on him, but that doesn't mean I'm sure he will disappoint in the NBA.  His poor college season is likely somewhat of a blip in his overall career, given his impressive numbers in high school.  He still has lead NBA scorer potential, which is rare in this draft.

Markus Howard:
I wrote extensively about Howard a little over a year ago here: https://thedraftreport.blogspot.com/2019/01/the-argument-for-markus-howard-as-top.html so feel free to check that out.  Not a lot of my analysis has changed, probably a bit lower on Howard now than before but still really high on him though.  Would probably take him in the late 1st, as he's one of the best NCAA scorers/shooters for his age in recent memory (ever even?).

Saben Lee:
As a Vanderbilt student, I've watched Saben live numerous times.  Originally, I was high on him as a potential NBA guy someday, especially if he could improve his shot.  In the last couple months though, his draft stock has increased pretty significantly (at least on draft twitter), perhaps due to having a competent coach behind him in Nashville.  While I still see Lee as a potential NBA guy, his shot really hasn't improved that much over the last couple of years and I don't see him ever being better than an average NBA defender (and even that could be wishful thinking).  He is definitely one of the best guards in the draft at attacking the rim, with quickness, shake and explosion off the dribble.  He rarely settles for mid-range shots off the pick and roll, and instead takes it all the way to the rim with aggression that's arguably unmatched by anyone in the draft.  He was 136-226 at the rim this past year, with only 24.3% of those being assisted, and 24 dunks (awesome for a guard).  He also draws fouls really well when taking it to the basket, averaging 6.4 FTA per game, second to only Mason Jones in the SEC, and did pretty well after getting there with a career high 75.2% from the free throw line.
While he's one of the best in this draft at attacking the rim (possibly the best), Lee still has a ways to go in other areas.  He has a large hitch in his shot that makes his release time slow and likely will prevent him from becoming a real NBA shooting threat without rare levels of improvement in that area.  While Saben is very athletic with long arms and puts forth effort on the defensive end, I think a lot of times people refuse to see how guys can be poor defenders especially at the NBA level, despite having these two traits.  Instincts and defensive IQ are huge towards playing team defense, and while I'd love to see Saben surrounded by better defenders (particularly a real rim protector, something Vandy really lacked), I think his NBA defensive potential is being overrated by some.  He's also not much of a threat as a passer, as a negative effect of his aggression is having tunnel vision at times.  These issues all hurt Saben as a prospect, especially because of how rare it is to become a positive NBA player as a 6-2 combo guard without much passing or shooting potential. That's not to say I still don't like him as a prospect, I still view him as draftable or a top UDFA type (so still likely higher than consensus), but I think there are some real flaws here that take away from his potential as a penetration scorer in the NBA.