2022 NBA Draft Big Board

 Tier 1:

1. SF/PF Jabari Smith, Auburn

Yep, I have Smith in a tier by himself.  I know it's pretty controversial to have Smith clearly ahead of Holmgren and Banchero, especially as those two have risen up draft boards (and #1 pick odds) in the last few weeks.  However, I think Smith is a pretty special prospect, even if he doesn't have the primary creation ability of most #1 overall picks.  Smith's biggest weakness at this point is his struggle to create for others (and even himself at times).  He doesn't have much quickness or shake as a ball handler, and thus often ends up settling for contested jumpers in the mid-range or from 3.  This might not seem all that attractive for a #1 pick, but the hard sell on Smith is that he is arguably the best at making these tough shots of any player I have ever scouted.  He shot 42.0% from 3 last year on 5.5 attempts per game on very difficult attempts.  He backed that up with some elite mid range shot-making and 80% from the free throw line.  Similarly to NBA stars such as Kawhi Leonard, Klay Thompson, DeMar DeRozan, Smith has a knack for keeping his focus to make tough contested shots.  This is something that is extremely rare at such a young age, and could make him the center of an NBA offense someday, even if he doesn't quite have the ball handling of other stars.  The other awesome thing about Smith is that his floor is really high.  He is already an elite floor spacer who can guard several positions due to his NBA size and athleticism at 6-10.  And at 19 and 1 month, Smith is significantly younger than other top prospects such as Holmgren, Banchero and Ivey.  This gives him ample time to develop more as a ball handler.  If not, maybe you are just looking at a 6-10 Klay Thompson, which would still be pretty fantastic at #1.

Tier 2:

2. C Chet Holmgren, Gonzaga
3. PF Paolo Banchero, Duke
4. PG/SG Jaden Ivey, Purdue

This draft has gotten a lot of criticism, but where I think it's actually pretty impressive is in the 3-4 range, where the Rockets and Pistons will get their pick of the remaining of these three names.  Holmgren's combination of shot blocking ability, shooting ability and mobility at 7-1 give him massive potential if he can add weight and further his impact on the offensive end.  Holmgren was a one and done but is actually much closer in age to Ivey than he is to Jabari Smith, which makes me question how much to value his dominance in the Gonzaga system last year.  However, it would be difficult to pass up his unicorn potential at #2 which is why I have him there.  Banchero is a great option at #3, as he creates his own shot as well as anyone in the draft, while also possessing an NBA ready body at 6-10, 250 lbs.  He has a well-rounded offensive game -- passing, ball handling, post up ability -- which gives him the potential to be a 3 level scorer who can also find the open man.  His lack of elite shake or explosiveness may limit his potential as a primary scorer in the NBA.  Lapses in defensive concentration also leave room for improvement.  Jaden Ivey may remind many of Ja Morant as he is incredibly quick and explosive when driving to the rim.  His jump shot also improved (35.8% from 3 on tough attempts) in his sophomore year in college, further enhancing his scoring ability.  His passing ability is not anywhere near Ja Morant-level yet, but his creation for himself and others should improve massively with the transition to NBA spacing.  Purdue's affinity for very big centers who can't shoot (Trevion Williams and Zach Edey this year) definitely hurt his penetration chances in college.  Ivey's slashing ability is one of the best singular skills of any players in this draft class (perhaps along with Chet's rim protection and Jabari Smith's shotmaking).  Again there is room for improvement defensively here.

Tier 3:

5. SF AJ Griffin, Duke

6. SF Shaedon Sharpe, Canada
7. PF Keegan Murray, Iowa
8. SF Dyson Daniels, G-League Ignite

9. PF Jeremy Sochan, Baylor

While this is a solid crop of prospects, it is much worse than the 5-9 range of drafts normally is.  In particular, there is a lack of primary/secondary creator ability compared to normal top 10 picks.  I love Griffin's physical profile, shooting and basketball bloodlines.  He's extremely young (not 18 until August) which gives him more creation potential on the wing.  I'm also super high on Sochan, as he has the potential to wreak havoc on the defensive end with great mobility for 6-9.  His offensive impact will be less immediate but he is skilled for 6-9 and is pretty developed as a ball handler.

Tier 4:
10. PF Tari Eason, LSU

11. SG Johnny Davis, Wisconsin

12. PG/SG Dalen Terry, Arizona

13. SG Bennedict Mathurin, Arizona

14. C Jalen Duren, Memphis

15. C Mark Williams, Duke

Eason is one of the most athletic players in the draft, and used his physical profile to score very efficiently in college last year.  His role will likely have to switch in the NBA, especially until his shooting improves further.  Eason is one of the surest physical profiles to stick in the NBA in this draft and backed that up with excellent numbers at LSU.  Terry showed out as a defender for Arizona as a young sophomore, making an all-defense team leading the team in steals per game, while also putting up 3.9 APG (to only 1.4 turnovers) and shooting 36.4% from three as more of an off-ball player for the Wildcats.  Largely because of their loaded guard rotation, he didn't create for himself very much at all.  Terry's offensive role should eventually grow as his ball handling has improved and his passing vision is among the best in this draft.  His length (7-1 wingspan) should make him a perfect fit on the wing in the NBA.  Davis and Mathurin were both national player of the year candidates in college last year, but I'm not sure the scoring of either will translate in the NBA very well.  On the more positive side, both are capable defenders who will hopefully be able to take difficult wing assignments in the future.  Davis took a lot of tough contested shots and may struggle to create space in the NBA against longer and more athletic defenders.  Mathurin doesn't possess much creation ability and his shot is probably being overrated by the draft community.  I put Davis higher mostly because of how much he improved during his time in college.  Duren and Williams are also fairly similar -- centers with great physical profiles who may struggle to guard in the pick and roll, especially early on.  The positional value for centers in the NBA is just not that high, which is a main reason why they are this low.

Tier 5:
16. SG Malaki Branham, Ohio State

17. PF EJ Liddell, Ohio State

18. SF Kendall Brown, Baylor

19. SF Ochai Agbaji, Kansas

20. PG Kennedy Chandler, Tennessee
21. C Walker Kessler, Auburn

22. SG Jalen Williams, Santa Clara

23. PG TyTy Washington, Kentucky

The draft starts to look pretty weak at this point.  Branham is a very crafty scorer but is raw and likely won't make a positive NBA impact for several years.  Liddell, his college teammate, is more of an immediate fit on a contender in a small ball 4 role, especially if he can stretch the floor.  Kessler is arguably a better shot-blocker than Chet Holmgren, and will find minutes as an interior defender even if he will struggle when switching on to quicker guards.  Washington looks to continue the trend of Kentucky guards outperforming their draft position (Tyrese Maxey, Jamal Murray,  Immanuel Quickley, Devin Booker, Keldon Johnson).

Tier 6:
24. PF Nikola Jovic, Serbia

25. SG Gabriele Procida, Italy

26. SG Wendell Moore, Duke

27. SG Blake Wesley, Notre Dame
28. SF Jake LaRavia, Wake Forest

29. SG Christian Braun, Kansas

30. PG JD Davison, Alabama 

31. SG Trevor Keels, Duke
32. SF Josh Minott, Memphis

33. SF Julian Champaignie, St. John's

I can definitely see why teams with picks in the 20s might not be too excited.  Jovic and Procida are my top two in a very weak crop of international players.  Blake Wesley and JD Davison use their elite athleticism as slashers, although both could improve their efficiency as jump shooters.  Davison in particular is one of the bounciest players in the draft.  Minott would be a great fit on the Raptors with their emphasis on explosive 6-8 ish players.  

Tier 7:

34. SF Ron Harper Jr., Rutgers

35. C Christian Koloko, Arizona

36. SF MarJon Beauchamp, G-League

37. SF Gabe Brown, Michigan State

38. PF/C Trevion Williams, Purdue

39. PG Jean Montero, Overtime Elite

40. SF Ousmane Dieng, France

41. SG Matteo Spagnolo, Italy

42. SG Jaden Hardy, G-League Ignite

43. SF Justin Lewis, Marquette

44. PF Marcus Bingham, Michigan State

45. PF Jaylin Williams, Arkansas

46. C Khalifa Diop, Senegal

47. C Israel Kamagate, France

48. PF Jabari Walker, Colorado

49.  PF David Roddy, Colorado State

This is where this draft starts to get REALLY bad.  Gabe Brown and Trevion Williams both seem like decent bets to carve out NBA roles -- Williams as a bench big, Brown as a 3 and D wing.  Brown was the best scorer for MSU last year but fits much better as a role player type who can play defense and shoot open looks.  Williams is a fantastic passer for his size, especially back cuts and skip passes to shooters, and this skill will be even more valuable in the NBA with the increased spacing.  I'm really low on Dieng relative to consensus as his skill level and feel for the game seem really low.  He does have a good physical profile for an NBA wing, but not much more than that.  Bingham and Williams both have defensive potential as switchable bigs and rim protectors (Williams also has a special talent for drawing charges).

Tier 8:

50. PF Patrick Baldwin Jr., UW-Milwaukee
51. PG Jordan Hall, St. Joseph's

52. SF Vince Williams Jr., VCU

53. C Orlando Robinson Jr., Freson State

54. PF Michael Foster Jr., G-League Ignite

55. PG Scotty Pippen Jr., Vanderbilt

56. SG Keon Ellis, Alabama

57. SG Dereon Seabron, NC State

58. SG Bryce McGowens, Nebraska

59. SF Johnny Juzang, UCLA

60. SF Peyton Watson, UCLA

61. PG/SG Hugo Besson, France

62. SG Max Christie, Michigan State

63. SG Alondes Williams, Wake Forest

64. C Kofi Cockburn, Illinois

65. PF Dominick Barlow, Overtime Elite

66. PF Isaiah Mobley, USC

67. SF Caleb Houstan, Michigan

68. PG Collin Gillespie, Villanova

69. SG Ryan Rollins, Toledo

70. PF Brady Manek, UNC

Not too much to say here, this portion of the draft is very weak and it's difficult to see NBA roles for a lot of these players.  Baldwin Jr. and Hall at least have some creation potential, while guys like Keon Ellis or Vince Williams Jr. could find 3 and D roles somewhere.  I wouldn't be surprised to see any of these guys stick in the league, but I also wouldn't count on much more than a cup of coffee for any of them.